On march 5th, 2024 AmCham Uzbekistan organized “Uzbekistan Economic Outlook” panel discussion. Begzod Djalilov, Senior Economics Officer, ADB, reviewed Uzbekistan Economic Performance and Outlook Analysis.
Key Notes:
– Projected growth is expected to slow to about 5.5%.
– Services, agriculture, and domestic demand are forecasted to cool due to inflation pushing costs and trimmed household income.
– Modest growth in private consumption is expected, with healthy investments in healthcare, education, urban infrastructure, and industrial facility expansion.
– Structural reforms such as energy price hikes are expected to retain inflation high, with protracted monetary tightening.
Policy Challenge:
– Uzbekistan needs to adopt a consolidated green development policy to enhance its competitive edge in the forthcoming green economic landscape, both internationally and domestically.
Why Uzbekistan Needs a Consolidated Green Development Policy:
– Commitments to the Paris Agreement and transitioning to a Green Economy by 2030.
– Institutional fragmentation in pursuing climate agenda and green transition.
Recommendations:
– Establish an overarching governance structure for climate policy involving line ministries, private sector representatives, civil society organizations, and think tanks.
– Functions of the governance structure include adapting the services sector, developing human capital for the green economy, revising technical regulations and standards for industrial goods, adapting public transport infrastructure, managing transboundary regional public goods, and adapting the healthcare system.